Japan vs 1920's US

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    Hi I need some help. I am looking for ways to better debunk the “deflationary spiral” nonsense and thought this may prove to be a good way to do so.

    So far I have

    GDP 1920 88.393
    GDP 1921 73.603
    GDP 1922 73.432
    GDP 1923 85.414

    June 1920 CPI, 20.9
    Sept 1922 CPI, 16.6

    Now here is Japanese inflation/deflation that I have compiled

    60’s average 5.43% YoY
    70’s average 9.02% YoY
    80-84 averag 3.56% YoY
    85-89 averag 1.12% YoY
    90-94 averag 1.842 YoY
    95-99 averag 0.32% YoY
    00-04 averag -.43% YoY
    05-09 averag -.136 YoY

    There are countless notable figures pointing at “deflation” as the cause for Japan’s problems, as they have been “fighting” this evil to no avail.

    Obviously the simpleton theory is that “expected lower prices” leads to consumers postponing purchases to such a degree that it is the cause for economic collapse.

    What I think I am correct in highlighting: The US had many times the amount of % deflation, yet it lasted less than 2 years.

    I do believe that I am showing that it is the policy response that is the cause and not the result of bad policy (necessary deflation).

    In my figures, Japan lived through dramatic inflation in the 60’s and 70’s. What is the cause of this?

    Are there other things that I can study to refute the deflation spiral nonsense? Other periods? Under the gold standard? I already understand the common sense reasons why “any amount of deflation” isn’t bad. I.E. http://mises.org/daily/6362/

    Any help is appreciated.


    Probably the best place to post this one is the “Austrian Economics” forum.

    You might also e-mail Robert “Bob” Murphy ( rpm-at-consultingbyrpm.com ); he’s crossed swords with people on this “deflationary” stuff in the past and might have some tips.

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