Deflationary Spirals

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  • #17202
    tatefegley
    Member

    Are there any empirical examples of “deflationary spirals”? At face value, the theory seems plausible.

    #17203
    jmherbener
    Participant
    #17204
    tatefegley
    Member

    I suppose I was only referring to the commonly held belief that during a bust that lower demand for consumer goods will cause prices of goods to decrease, which will lead to layoffs of labor, which will then lead to even lower demand, and so on.

    #17205
    jmherbener
    Participant

    Dr. Huelsmann answers this point in the articles above.

    Here are a few comments. First, there is some amount of consumption that must be done and people will not wait for prices to fall tomorrow before they buy food, clothing, fuel, etc. So price spirals, if they exist, have a termination point. Second, speculation cuts the spiral short. If entrepreneurs realize the extent to which prices will fall in the future, they will lower prices today. Third, lower prices for outputs reduce revenue for entrepreneurs who must, then, lower their demands for inputs which reduces prices for inputs. There is no need for production to be curtailed if input and output prices fall proportionately. The problem of the bust is not falling aggregate demand, but a mismatch of productive capacity built up during the boom with preferences that emerge in the bust. Layoffs occur during the bust in areas of malinvestment that occurred during the boom. The solution, then, is liquidation of the malinvestments and reallocation of resources into lines that satisfy consumer preferences as they will be in the near future.

    #17206
    tatefegley
    Member

    Thank you very much!

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