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November 28, 2014 at 6:02 am #20331tom.osborne78Member
Book Report: “Dark Winter”, by John L. Casey
Written in 2014
John L. Casey is a retired NASA space shuttle engineer.
I highly recommend reading “Dark Winter, by John L. Casey. According to John L. Casey, global warming is over and has already peaked between 1998 and 2007. The good news is that it wasn’t the fault of humans, it was the fault of the Sun. The bad news is that global warming has already been replaced by a 3 decade cooling trend due to a “Solar Hibernation”, and this cooling trend will not be as pleasant as the warming trend.
According to Casey, global climate trends are controlled by changing energy output from the Sun, not elevated greenhouse gas levels. The Sun’s output can be estimated by counting the sun spots. A high number of sun spots indicates high energy output while a low number of sun spots indicates low energy output. The sun spots themselves have a low energy output, but the sun spots are surrounded by an area of much higher than average energy, making sun spots an indication of high energy output.
Sun spots were first observed in 364 BC by Chinese astronomer Gan De, and by Greek astronomers in 300 BC. The Chinese started recording sun spot levels in 28 BC in their official records. (Wikipedia)
Sun spot levels are cyclical and predictable to one sigma. Sun spot lows are correlated with low earth temperatures with a confidence level in excess of 90%.
There are three sun spot cycles covered in this book, 11 year, 100 year and 206 year cycles. The 206 year cycle is the most emphasized in this book and has the highest repeatability and correlation with earth temperatures. The author evaluated sun spot data for the past 1200 years. Casey named the 206 year cycle the Bicentennial Cycle. He later discovered that the cycle had already been discovered by at least 2 other people separately, who named it the de Vries Cycle and the Suess Cycle.
Periods of low sun spot activity are called “solar minimums”. The solar minimums also have names. The previous one on the 206 year cycle is the Dalton Minimum, named for its’ discoverer, John Dalton, a physicist who is best known for formulating the atomic theory. (Note how often climate discoveries are made by non-climatologists) The Dalton Minimum occurred between 1793 and 1830. This is a period that was known for extremely cold winters, cooler than average summers, but with higher than average 90 degree days. The solar minimum is preceded by several years of high temperatures and low precipitation. High levels if volcanic activity and earthquakes are coincident with solar minimums, but no one knows why. The Sun has already entered the next solar minimum after the Dalton Minimum on the 206 year cycle. The temperatures in the next 3 decades should therefore be similar to the temperatures between 1793 and 1830.
Review of weather related events between 1793 and 1830:
1788-1789 France: This is the heat immediately preceding the solar minimum. There were two consecutive crop failures due to high heat and drought. Bread prices doubled in one month, which helped to start the French Revolution. Similarly, record heat in 2010 was followed by record cold in 2011.
1812-1813: This is the flip-side of the heat, the cold of the Dalton Minimum. Napoleon invaded Russia with an army of 600,000. 400,000 died, many from exposure to the cold. His defeat was at the low point of the Dalton Minimum. Similarly, if the peak heat is 2005, the peak cold should be 2031, 26 years later. In 2031, Canada may not be able to grow any grain in much of the prairie. New England and Upstate New York may also have extensive crop failures.
1811-1812: Earthquakes along the New Madrid Fault rock the Mississippi Valley. This was a series of three earthquakes with a force of 8.0 on the Richter scale with many aftershocks. Many geologists believe the New Madrid Fault is currently due for movement, according to the Discovery Channel.
1815: Mount Tambora erupts in Indonesia, the largest eruption in recorded history. This eruption was 300 times more powerful than Mount St. Helens 1980 and 10 times more powerful than Krakatau 1883. It affected the global weather for 2 or 3 years.
1816, “The Year Without A Summer”: This was caused by a combination of the Dalton Minimum and the Tambora eruption. The winter brought bitter cold to New England and as far south as Pennsylvania. In June there was snow from New England to Virginia. July 4, it snowed again from New England to Virginia. In August in New England, the temperature quickly went from the 90’s to freezing, killing all crops. This started a mass migration from New England to Indiana and Illinois, allowing those two territories to gain enough population to become states. Corn, potato, and wheat crops were total failures in the UK and Ireland. Oat prices increase 700%. There were many outbreaks of typhus.
1816 – 1823: Worldwide cholera epidemic.
Other Cooling Indications:
According to John L. Casey, there are many other indications that the Earth’s cooling is well underway:
• Ocean temperatures are showing a clear cooling trend recently.
• The Pacific Ocean is cooling and will continue to cool for 20-30 years.
• World glacial ice is growing and has been growing for 10 years.
• Antarctica is getting colder at the rate of 0.7 degrees C per decade. The ice sheet is growing and has grown by 45 billion tons in the past 10 years.
• Greenland has cooled 1.29 degrees C from 1958 – 2001. The warmest recent decade in Greenland was the 1930’s. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been growing since 1992 and has been growing by 11 billion tons per year. Some studies that reported shrinking ice in Greenland only measured ice on the south coast when it was being affected by the Gulf Stream.
• Mountain glacial ice stopped retreating in 1998 and has since started growing.
• In 2008, Al Gore predicted that all the Arctic ice would be gone by 2013.
John L. Casey has made the following conclusions based on his research:
• The primary cause of climate change is the Sun, not greenhouse gas levels. Global warming has already ended.
• The changes are cyclical and predictable with better than 90% accuracy.
• A new Solar Minimum has already begun and will affect our weather for the next 3 decades.
• The Sun has entered a period of “Solar Hibernation”, as it does every 206 years.
• The coldest expected weather with the most severe crop damage is expected to be in the late 2020’s to the early 2030’s.
• The climate models that predicted rising temperatures due to increasing levels of greenhouse gasses have already failed because they did not predict the current pause in the warming trend.
There are at least 73 researchers with 40 peer reviewed papers that have similar conclusions in regards to the effects of the 206 year solar cycle minimum. Sixteen separate scientists predicted the coming cold period.
I searched for critical reviews of the book. One researcher from Yale was asked if he read the book and he said “No we don’t have time to read everything that those clowns put out. It’s not a scientific, peer-reviewed book”. I could find no serious, negative reviews of the book.
I have read other papers on this subject that were critically reviewed by researchers from the global warming lobby. All of them dismissed the effects of the sun on climate, but none of the reviews made any substantial objections to the papers.
I recommend this book for anyone interested in climate. The book is written for people with little or no climate experience or education.
The author of this book report:
• Has a BS degree in engineering.
• Is a licensed engineer in four states.
• Has worked as an engineer since 1978.
• Does not work in climate research and has no published papers on climate.
• Has taken two graduate college classes in climate and has read numerous articles on climate since the mid-seventies.November 29, 2014 at 8:59 am #20332tom.osborne78Member
Yesterday I did some checking on some of the facts. I am in shock. The book claims that the ice sheets in Antarctica, Greenland, North Pole, and mountain glaciers are still growing. Based on the research I did yesterday it’s all true. These glaciers have all been growing for over a decade. Apparently the global warming people badgered the federal government to measure these glaciers from a satellite for several decades, and they did. But all the measurements show that all the ice is growing. There are a few isolated sections of Antarctica and Greenland where there was some temporary melting, and these isolated events are what the global warming people use in their scientific papers. If anyone does a peer review and mentions this, they are banned from any more research money, and their comments are squashed.
I also did a google search on “Medieval Warm Period polar ice cap”. I remembered reading about 15 years ago that the ice cap was much smaller during this period from 800-1300 AD. I found a lot of studies done by Canadians, Scandinavians, and Russians that confirms this without a doubt. The Canadians found many whale bones under the ice. They dated the bones. They estimate that there was an ice-free passage, north of Canada, between the Atlantic and Pacific, for 720 out of the past 3000 years, during both the Medieval and Rome Warm Periods. This information is covered up by the global warming people. The Canadians, Scandinavians and Russians don’t buy into Global warming due to greenhouse gasses. It’s only Americans and Continental Europeans that believe in it.
There is a high amount of correlation between solar intensity and earth temperatures, but the global warming people lobby the government not to study this because they know it is the real answer.
This information is all a slam dunk against global warming and the information is all out there, but it isn’t being reported by the mainstream media. Fox news takes a stand against global warming, but their arguments are so dumb that I think they are purposely confusing us. The Republican Party also seems to be in favor of global warming. Their last presidential candidate was.
This is the biggest cover-up since the Warren Commission.
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