Reply To: How does the Fed create this correlation


Here is what the correlation looks like for the entire data set FRED has on the S&P 500:

The correlation is not so impressive for the entire set of data and when one doesn’t scale the S&P 500 data to make it start at the same height as the Monetary Base data in 2009.

Even though the Monetary Base skyrocketed, neither short-term nor long-term interest rates fell continuously decline from 2009-2016. So falling interest rates did not cause the stock market to boom.

Most of the Fed’s expansion of the monetary base has been absorbed by banks as excess reserves.

Apparently, The Fed’s massive expansion of the Monetary Base has resulted in some credit expansion which has been channeled by investors into the stock market (as well as housing markets and auto markets) to just the extent that we see the correlation noticed by Lara and Murphy.