jmherbenerSince 2008, the Fed has been using QE counter-cyclically. But expansionary monetary policy can be used pro-cyclically as well. Normal open market operations are used this way, i.e., to stimulate a boom. The Fed is a one horse show. No matter the economic conditions, it inflates the money stock through credit expansion.
No one knows how the Fed will unwind QE. Here is Bernanke on the topic in 2010:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100210a.htm
Here is Bob Murphy’s response:
The only other time the Fed was faced with such a large build up of excess reserves in commercial banks was from its attempt at monetary inflation in the 1930s. Banks built their excess reserves to unprecedented levels during the mid-1930s and were still carrying enormous excess reserves into the Second World War.
Unless the government roles back its intervention and stops its expansionary monetary policy and profligate fiscal policy, I think the next 10 years will be a period of stagflation, like the 1970s.