Reply To: Full Employment, Cycles, Etc


Yes, I think it is fair to say that interest rates have not been left to the market since before the dot-com boom.

Here is the commercial paper rate:

Here is the corporate bond rate:

Fed monetary inflation and credit expansion makes interest rates lower than they otherwise would be. So even if interest rates are moving up, asset price inflation may be taking place. This is likely in our current situation where the Fed has suppressed interest rates for so long below the market rates.

Also, interest rates are rising mainly on the short end of the yield curve as the Fed reduces expansionary policy.

Here is the interest rate spread between long and short:

I haven’t made a careful study of the impact of Trump’s policies. It’s likely that they are having their effects, but that these effects are intertwined in complex ways that are difficult to disentangle. For example, the impact of tax cuts and tariff increases on farm incomes and production.

On tariffs:

The Impact of Trade and Tariffs on the United States

Update: The Impact of Enacting President Trump’s Tariffs

On taxes:

Details and Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan, September 2016