Reply To: Inflation in Brazil


The central bank of Brazil has slowed the growth of the money supply recently. It has even shrunk in the lat few months:

Domestic price and inflation and international devaluation are not, strictly speaking, inversely related. They are instead, two manifestations of the same phenomenon, namely, the purchasing power of a money.

With the money supply shrinking in Brazil and prices still rising, it must be a collapsing demand for money that is driving up prices. People expect price inflation to accelerate and so spend money more readily. The mainstream refers to this as inflationary expectations. (You may remember when Ben Bernanke was inflating the dollar in the hope, which proved to be vain, that it would ignite inflationary expectations among Americans who would then spend more freely.) As you point out, foreign holdings of Brazilian currency are also declining and their selling of it against other currencies is driving its depreciation.

The last chart in this Bloomberg story shows that price inflation has been running between 6-7% in Brazil since the beginning of 2014 until last summer when it shot up to 9% in the fall and has been between 8-9% since then.

And this Bloomberg story highlights that the monetary tightening has precipitated a recession in Brazil: